DXY - US Dollar Index

DXY broke below critical 100-101.50 support level in April 2025 and failed to reclaim it even during geopolitical conflict. Technical analysis suggests decline to 95 near-term and potentially 88-90 by late 2025/early 2027.

Bear flag pattern identified on DXY with breakdown of 12-year support/resistance zone. Dollar failed to rally during US-Iran war, which historically would have been a major safe haven catalyst. De-dollarization trend is underway due to tariff policies pushing other nations away from holding USD as reserve currency.

The dollar is sliding (down 2%+ over 12 months), real yields are near zero (0.3%), M2 money supply is growing 4.9% YoY, and global reserve currency share has fallen from 72% to 56%. A gold revaluation would confirm the dollar is in 'massive trouble.'

J.P. Morgan expects US dollar to sell off in the bullish scenario, benefiting gold, silver, and miners

The entire thesis is that the US dollar is collapsing and entering a currency reset. The DXY fell 9.5% in 2025, hitting a four-year low in January 2026. The host argues the dollar's share of global reserves is declining and the flight-to-dollar dynamic has broken down.

Gareth previously predicted the US dollar would pull back, which it did, helping the S&P 500 rally. He notes the dollar found resistance at a prior support level, confirming his analysis.

The DXY rally on Iran conflict is historically weak compared to past geopolitical shocks. Massive resistance from August/November 2025 highs, $39T+ U.S. debt, falling Treasury demand, and accelerating de-dollarization all point to significant dollar weakness once geopolitical fears subside.

Oil is priced in dollars, so when oil prices rise, global demand for dollars increases. The DXY index is already showing strength as a result of the conflict.

The DXY is repeatedly hammering a critical 20-year trendline dating back to 2008. Gareth predicts a confirmed breakdown below this support zone by year-end 2026, driven by uncontrolled fiscal spending, massive U.S. debt, and degradation of Federal Reserve independence. He views this as the beginning of the end of the USD's reserve currency status.

Soloway argues the DXY is forming a bear flag pattern and is weakening despite strong jobs data. He expects a breakdown driven by economic weakness, potential Fed rate cuts, and de-dollarization. Major currencies like the euro and British pound are already breaking out against the dollar.