GOLD - Gold (physical commodity)

Long-term bullish on monthly chart but short-term cautious. Looking for a pullback to $3,500-$3,600 area before buying aggressively. Currently seeing a potential top pattern on daily.

Gold is trading well below its 200-day moving average, a rare setup that historically preceded major rallies. The mechanical pattern after oil shocks shows gold initially drops then rallies to higher highs. Current conditions (US debt at $39T, central bank buying) are more extreme than any previous episode. Last 10 times gold touched the 200-day MA, it was 100% positive at 12 months.

Technical analysis shows gold has shifted from uptrend to downtrend with lower highs and lower lows. Probability favors 65-70% chance of further downside with support at $4,100 and potential target of $3,500.

Gareth remains a long-term bull and keeps his long-term holdings, but the short-term charts signal a likely pullback. He advises long-term holders to hold through the volatility while being aware of near-term downside risk.

Pabrai explicitly prefers gold over Bitcoin, stating gold is simpler and not used by scammers. He views it as a store of value that is independent of any particular government or system. He references the 'thermonuclear event' model where even after catastrophic events, real assets retain value.

Long-term bull on gold due to fiscal deficits and currency debasement. Near-term expecting a pullback to $3,500 (50-618% Fibonacci retracement meeting down-sloping parallel channel) before buying longer-term holdings. Projects $10,000+ in the next couple years.

Big earnings beat caused gap up, good ORB setup at $46.15 with stop around $44.80. Bullish on gold overall

Central banks are buying gold at 4x pre-2022 rates, absorbing all new mining supply. The sovereign de-dollarization trend triggered by Russia's frozen reserves is structural and accelerating. Gold is presented as essential portfolio insurance against dollar devaluation.

Bencino prefers holding gold over US dollars, believing a currency reset/dollar debasement is coming. He has held gold since 2013 and continues to hold it as a core portfolio position.

Major global gold producer, tier-one low-cost operator mentioned alongside Newmont and Agnico Eagle.