OPENAI - OpenAI

Confidentially filed to go public after raising a record $122 billion private round in March. Hopes to top a trillion-dollar valuation. Notably stated in filing it hasn't actually decided to go public and may remain private.

OpenAI is mentioned as having filed its S1 with the SEC, valued at $852 billion, with plans to reserve a sizable portion of shares for retail investors. Richard notes OpenAI plans to spend $600 billion by 2030 on compute compared to $25 billion in annualized revenue. No specific recommendation is given beyond caution.

OpenAI is mentioned as one of the next companies planning a public listing that would benefit from the same Nasdaq rule changes, potentially driving significant index fund buying

OpenAI is preparing to file for an IPO. Tom warns this is part of a pattern where insiders exit to retail investors, and that the companies may be racing to go public before capital runs out.

Valued at $852B with only $25B in revenue (34x revenue multiple). Tom calls this 'narrative investing, not fundamental investing' and warns of a timing problem between capex and revenue realization.

OpenAI has changed the world and has extraordinary revenue growth, but the host highlights that the company is losing cash flow hand over fist due to massive computing costs. At a potential $1 trillion valuation, the host frames this as a speculative bet on the AI boom continuing without setbacks or commoditization.

The host explicitly says to 'avoid it like the plague' and 'I would never buy this stock.' He cites massive cash burn, missed revenue targets, leadership integrity issues, the CEO being fired for deception, an active fraud lawsuit, the CFO's private concerns about paying bills, and a valuation of $800B-$1T for a company not profitable until 2030. He compares it to the dot-com bubble and calls it a wealth transfer from retail to insiders.

Host highlights concerning financials: $20B revenue with -$15.6B profit at $852B valuation, suggesting speculative investment

OpenAI is expected to IPO with a low float structure similar to SpaceX. Historical evidence on low-float IPOs and IPOs in general suggests severe underperformance. The speaker groups OpenAI with SpaceX as raising serious concerns.

Presenter highlights OpenAI's $852B valuation despite $20B revenue and -$15.6B profit, calling it a company that burns $1B/month. Described as grossly overvalued at IPO.