PYPL - PayPal Holdings Inc.

Example of a stock that fell 78% in a bear market and still has not recovered; illustrates stage four risk.

Both hosts agree PayPal is a great takeover target at $75-$80; strong free cash flow margin, incredible book, and never declining revenue make it undervalued.

Host owns it; fair value $100-120 vs $60 price; acquisition offer of $61 is too low.

Momentum play to the upside if it breaks above $59.80; strong close today.

Listed with 19% expected IRR, meeting host's 15%+ margin-of-safety threshold; considered attractive buy.

Cheap but for a reason - dislikes the business and user experience, prefers other opportunities

PayPal's moat has eroded due to competition from Apple Pay, etc., with gross margins falling to 46%.

The presenter's analysis shows intrinsic value in the range of $70-$200 per share, with a mid-point around $106-$124. At $54 (post-buyout pop still below offer price), the stock offers a significant margin of safety and a 21.5% annualized return potential over 10 years under conservative assumptions. The presenter agrees with Michael Burry that the $60.50 offer is too low and the company is a 'screaming deal' at current levels.

Losing market share, declining EPS through 2026, opportunity cost outweighs potential.

Burry sees PayPal as a bombed-out quality stock with strong cash flow, aggressive buybacks, and a monetizing Venmo. He believes the selloff was due to AI rotation fear, not business problems.