SMH - VanEck Semiconductor ETF

The entire semiconductor sector is up 83% in 63 days, representing the strongest momentum in the market.

The speaker shows SMH as an example of the risk-on trade going parabolic, with a chart going 'up and to the right.' He uses it to illustrate the speculative hardware rally but does not give a direct buy/sell recommendation.

A bearish reversal engulfing candle is forming on SMH, which Gareth describes as the most powerful reversal pattern in technical analysis with ~80% probability of signaling a top. A close below $589 would confirm this pattern.

Aschenbrenner holds $2 billion in notional put options against SMH, the broad semiconductor ETF, as his largest single put position

Suggested as a core holding for tech exposure, contains Nvidia, TSM, Micron, Broadcom. Good way to get diversified semiconductor exposure.

240% measured move from the prior bull cycle has been matched exactly — same magnitude as the previous run that preceded a bear market in semis. Suggests the move is exhausted.

Has completed a 240% measured move from the prior low that exactly matches the prior bull cycle's magnitude, suggesting the move is exhausted.

Aschenbrenner holds over $2 billion in bearish positions against the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH), shorting the entire chip stack as part of his AI infrastructure bubble thesis.

Hosts love SMH as it encompasses the entire semiconductor compute part of AI. Recommended as a 5-year hold.

Three consecutive bull runs have each topped at approximately 240%, and the current 'third hurrah' appears to have exhausted itself. Historical drawdowns of 40-47% are expected. SMH was down over 3% on the day of analysis.