SPACEX - SpaceX (pre-IPO)

The host believes the stock is a compelling long-term investment at around $139, given its innovative edge and multiple growth drivers. However, they advise caution and dollar-cost averaging due to potential further volatility.

SpaceX is overvalued at 80-100 times sales, forced buying from index inclusion is temporary, and massive insider unlocks will create selling pressure. Historical IPOs suggest a 50%+ decline from current levels.

SpaceX is trading at 100x revenue, is not profitable, needs continuous capital raises, faces lockup expiration selling pressure, and is highly exposed to AI narrative cracking and rising interest rates. Institutional money is fleeing because when proven businesses like Microsoft are being beaten up, there's no reason to hold a speculative 100x revenue name.

The host discusses the SpaceX IPO as the largest in history at a $2 trillion valuation. He notes that historically, the median tech IPO is down 7.4% six months after its first trading day and down 3.5% a year later. He argues 30x returns from this valuation level are extremely unlikely, though he acknowledges Elon Musk has defied odds before.

At $1.78 trillion valuation (90x trailing revenues, company losing money at massive scale), priced for perfection. Prospectus assumes every financially active human on Earth spends $28,500/year on space/AI services. $75B IPO covers less than one-third of $235B cash commitments. Shareholder structure is extremely unfriendly (no voting rights, no litigation rights, no proposal rights). Compared to Cisco in 2000—even great companies can leave investors underwater for decades at extreme valuations.

Ross is day trading SpaceX on IPO day, entering long positions on breakouts. He acknowledges the stock is fundamentally overvalued at 105-110x sales with no earnings, but trades the technical momentum. He would not short it due to the 'Musk premium' and irrational market dynamics. For long-term investors, he advises waiting for a better entry around October when lockup selling pressure may push price to or below IPO levels.

Tom describes the IPO as 'exit liquidity day' where early investors cash out. He warns retail investors that historically, first-generation investors in transformative tech infrastructure lose money, and later generations profit. He says to only invest if you can hold for 10-20 years without debt, and to be cautious about short-term speculation.

The hosts discuss SpaceX's IPO at $1.75 trillion valuation. They acknowledge it's hard to analyze with traditional metrics (100x revenue). They admire the business quality (Starlink's growth, launch dominance, future potential in space data centers) but recognize the price is extreme. They conclude it's a 'wonderful business at a silly price' per Charlie Munger framework. No explicit buy/sell recommendation, but they lean toward respecting the opportunity while acknowledging the valuation challenge.

Ben Felix does not give a direct buy/sell recommendation on SpaceX. He presents data showing retail IPOs have historically underperformed significantly and warns that caution is warranted, but explicitly states he is not predicting a price drop. He notes that index fund investors will automatically receive small allocations.

Joe is an early investor in XAI (not SpaceX directly) and plans to sell half his initial investment when it doubles. He thinks the SpaceX IPO is structured as an exit for early investors, with retail likely to be bagholders. He expects better entry valuations within a year.