SPCX - SpaceX

Tom believes that the IPO represents an exit for early investors and warns retail investors about the risks of investing in a company with significant losses.

Host expects an aggressive pop at IPO open due to limited shares, pent-up demand, and forced ETF buying, but advises against buying at open for long-term investors. Poor fills and extreme volatility make it dangerous for retail traders. Suggests it may bleed over the following 6 months.

The host presents extensive bearish analysis of the SpaceX IPO. At a $1.75 trillion valuation, investors pay 91x sales (vs Google's 11x) and 50x book value. The company is burning $30B/year in cash with accelerating losses. Corporate governance is heavily skewed — Musk controls 85% of votes with no meaningful shareholder protections. The host explicitly calls buying at IPO price 'speculation' and 'a bet,' not investing, and argues the price vastly exceeds current value.

Givens describes the IPO as the largest in history at $1.75T valuation, massively oversubscribed, and says 'this thing is going to absolutely rip on day one.' He cites Chamath's $2T valuation thesis and projects 5x revenue growth to $90B by 2028.

Ross presents the SpaceX IPO as a historic opportunity for retail investors to potentially buy at IPO price through select brokerages, but he explicitly warns that requesting shares does not guarantee allocation and that chasing the stock after the open could be dangerous. He positions it as something to be aware of and prepare for rather than an outright buy.

Ross presents the SpaceX IPO as a historic opportunity for retail investors to buy at IPO price, but he is cautious about the $1.75 trillion valuation and notes most IPOs fall 50% from peak to trough in their first year. He advises preparing to request shares but warns against panic-buying on the open market if you miss the allocation.

The host acknowledges SpaceX is an extraordinary business with real revenue from Starlink ($16B total revenue, $4.42B Starlink operating income), but cautions that at a $1.75 trillion valuation (120x revenue), investors are paying more than almost every public company on Earth for a business still spending heavily on Starship with complex governance. The host explicitly says this is a speculative bet, not an investment at this price.