SPX - S&P 500 Index

Mentioned alongside the Nasdaq as part of the broader market analysis. The same moving average framework applies, with the daily 50 MA break signaling potential further downside for the S&P as well.

The S&P 500 appears overvalued near all-time highs on price-to-sales and price-to-book metrics, near dot-com bubble levels. The video doesn't explicitly recommend selling but implies caution about current valuations, suggesting investors should be aware of elevated large-cap valuations.

Presenter believes SpaceX is a great company and long-term compounder but currently too expensive. Recommends waiting for the unlock-driven dump cycle to play out, likely through August-September, before buying. Identifies $100 as the optimistic support floor.

Host calls SpaceX and AI stocks 'scammy crap' and believes the AI bubble will die like previous speculative manias (dotcom 2000, 2008 financial crisis, Japan 1980s, 1929 crash).

The host notes the market is historically expensive with a P/E near 40 and Bank of America warning of overvaluation on 17 of 20 metrics, but also points out that similar warnings in early 2025 were followed by a 20% rally. He advocates continuing to dollar-cost average rather than panic selling.

The S&P 500 has printed a lower low. The critical watch is whether it makes a lower high (bearish, ending the uptrend) or a higher high (continuation of uptrend). A lower high would be the trigger for a bigger selloff.

Host acknowledges SpaceX's massive potential (Starlink, Terra Fab, data centers in space, AI compute) but considers it expensive short-term. He's on the sidelines watching, noting the small float and upcoming unlock from 5% to 50%. Compares to Tesla's history of volatility creating buying opportunities. Not shorting but not buying at these levels.

Successfully day traded on IPO. Now gapping higher to ~$170. Speculative long hold - no real earnings, betting on future. Most IPOs fall 50%+ from peak before basing. Could be a long-term hold but very speculative.

Soloway identifies a failed breakout pattern on the daily chart where the S&P broke above a parallel channel, retraced back to it (scene of the crime), and is now bouncing. He notes a lower low has been confirmed and warns that if a lower high forms and price breaks back below the parallel, it would be a failed breakout leading to 15-20% downside. The macro logarithmic chart also shows resistance at a long-term trend line connecting the 2009 and 2020 lows, which previously led to the 2022 bear market.

Felix explicitly avoids SpaceX and IPOs in general. He calls IPOs 'selling events' where early investors exit to retail buyers. He notes SpaceX is 'priced for perfection' with no profits, trading at crazy revenue multiples. He prefers more predictable investments where he can follow institutional money flows.