SPX - S&P 500 Index

SpaceX has filed for an IPO. Tom warns that IPOs allow early insiders and VCs to exit, pushing risk onto retail investors. He suggests these trillion-dollar AI IPOs may be a mechanism for insiders to hand off risk before confidence in AI valuations fades.

SpaceX IPO rumors are creating a large liquidity event. The hosts discuss SPV fees and fine print, warning investors to be cautious about how they access pre-IPO shares.

The host believes stocks will likely drift higher long-term due to financial repression but warns the market is extremely expensive and significant drawdowns are possible. He advises continuing to buy but with caution and diversification.

Structural supply squeeze from NASDAQ rule changes, tax-disincentivized insider selling, SBLOC borrowing instead of selling, $28.5T total addressable market, fastest scaling telecom product in history, space data center potential, and Elon Musk's compensation package betting on $7.5T+ market cap

The presenter does not give a direct buy/sell recommendation but provides a deeply cautious analysis. They disclose no position in SpaceX/SPCX. The analysis highlights that the IPO bundles a profitable aerospace/connectivity business with a cash-burning AI venture and a distressed social media platform, making independent valuation nearly impossible. The massive negative free cash flow (-$13.9B), governance concentration (Musk controls 85% voting power), and speculative AI-based valuation are significant concerns. However, Starlink's genuine profitability and launch dominance represent a real bull case. The presenter suggests waiting and watching, with a potential future spin-off as a more attractive entry point.

Host argues the S&P 500 at all-time highs is disconnected from economic reality and a crash is coming

The S&P 500 is facing major resistance near 7,700. Soloway expects a potential pullback to around 7,000, which would be roughly a 7% decline — a 'retrace to the scene of the crime' at the breakout level. Negative breadth and macro headwinds support this view.

The host expects the S&P 500 to lose half its value, citing Buffett's warning about a 50%+ drawdown and the Buffett Indicator at 230%.

At upper boundary of multi-year parallel channel near 7,200. Major resistance level. Apple earnings and upcoming reports will determine if it breaks through or pulls back.

The presenter argues equities are way overbought and disconnected from the real economy. The trailing P/E is above 30, the forward P/E is around 21, and Berkshire Hathaway is sitting on record cash. The smart money is hedging while retail floods into calls — a classic euphoria signal. The May 10 CPI print is identified as the catalyst that will break the bull case.