TLT - Long-Term Treasury Bonds (20+ year)

30-year Treasury yields at 5%+ represent a guaranteed return that competes with stocks. If yields stay elevated or rise further, capital will continue leaving stocks for bonds. However, the Fed is trapped and the situation is complex.

Long-term Treasuries are expected to underperform stocks but short-term Treasuries above 5% are good for savers

Graham warns that long-term bonds like 10 or 30-year Treasuries could lose significant value in the short term if yields continue to rise, and advises against putting money you need into long-term bonds.

The host explicitly recommends exiting long-dated bonds and any trade that assumes the Fed will act honestly. If Warsh cuts rates into high inflation and redefines the numbers, the thesis for holding long bonds collapses.

Japan's 10-year yield at a 27-year high is forcing Japanese institutions to dump US Treasury bonds to repatriate cash. This stealth tightening will push the US 10-year yield higher. The presenter explicitly warns that if the US 10-year yield walks above 4.30%, the summer drawdown becomes inevitable. Rising yields are negative for long-duration Treasuries.

Bearish on bonds; 20-year yield breaking out higher; massive US debt ($39T and growing $2-3T/year); decreasing global demand for US Treasuries; Ross expects rates to go up, not down

Government can't afford higher rates; expects bank deregulation to push long-term rates down, boosting TLT. Sees end-of-year upside.

Host warns that Treasury yields are rising and foreign central banks are selling US Treasuries at the fastest pace since 2012. He describes a potential debt death spiral where rising yields make borrowing more expensive, leading to bigger deficits and further selling. All three policy outcomes are negative for bonds.

Macro factors including military spending, rising inflation, potential Fed rate hikes, and de-dollarization are pushing bond yields higher, which means bond prices will fall. Recommending buying December $80 put options to profit from TLT declining.

Short-term bullish; government needs long-term yields down, and he holds call options