TLT - Long-Term Treasury Bonds (20+ year)

Long-term Treasuries have lost 85-90% of their value in gold terms since 2014. Foreign lenders are leaving, yields are rising, and the cost of borrowing is increasing.

Brown highlights that 10-, 20-, and 30-year yields have been rising, with only a small recent decline caused directly by Bessent's Treasury buyback intervention. He notes the Treasury lacks printing power and must fund buybacks with short-term borrowing (like paying off a mortgage with a credit card), and that the Fed wants to exit the business of controlling long-term rates. He believes the two sides will negotiate a new accord, and that any rate relief from falling inflation will not be enough — leaving the long end structurally fragile.

Tom warns that 'the sure bet of owning US debt is no longer the sure bet' as part of a global de-dollarization and economic reset, and that 'your investments may not be as safe as you think.' This is a bearish-leaning warning on US government debt.

Nick shows that 30-year bond funds lost money after inflation over the past 11 years and argues that under financial repression, long bonds will continue to leave retirees short.

Bilyeu describes a broad exodus from US debt: China has been selling for years, Japan is in crisis, a Nordic country sold ~$80B in Treasuries, and the US is increasingly forced to buy back its own debt — which he cites (via Ray Dalio) as a classic sign of imperial decline.

Long-term Treasury bonds are losing purchasing power due to potential financial repression and inflation; retirees who bought in 2014 have lost ~90% in gold terms.

Long-term Treasury bonds have suffered massive losses and the host advises selling anything tied to long-duration bonds.

Prehn endorses Bank of America's Michael Hartnett's 'anything but bonds' trade and argues the bond market is signaling it no longer trusts the US government's ability to manage debt. Long-term interest rates rising despite bad news supports a bearish outlook on Treasuries.

Porter says long-duration fixed income over 5 years is no longer investable; bonds will lose 50-75% of wealth as the government prints money to pay debts. TLT is a proxy for long-duration Treasuries.

Long-term Treasury bonds have poor real returns when measured in gold and are likely to continue underperforming.