TLT - Long-Term Treasury Bonds (20+ year)

Long-term Treasury bonds have poor real returns when measured in gold and are likely to continue underperforming.

Grantham includes bonds as part of diversification, but Tom warns about inflation and long-term bonds

The host explains that financial repression means the government deliberately holds interest rates below inflation, causing bondholders to lose real purchasing power. He notes current real rates are negative (3.6% Fed rate vs 3.8% inflation) and describes this as a 'hidden tax' on savers and pension funds holding bonds.

30-year Treasury yields at 5%+ represent a guaranteed return that competes with stocks. If yields stay elevated or rise further, capital will continue leaving stocks for bonds. However, the Fed is trapped and the situation is complex.

If yields start to fall, TLT could move to the upside. Conversely, if yields continue to explode, TLT will move down. Presented as a way to play the Treasury market.

Long-term Treasuries are expected to underperform stocks but short-term Treasuries above 5% are good for savers

The host discusses Treasury yields extensively, noting that 30-year yields have crossed 5% and that existing bond prices move inversely to yields. He suggests bank deregulation could push yields lower, which would benefit long-duration Treasury holders. This is a macro observation rather than a direct recommendation.

If yields pull back further, longing TLT would be a good play. Conversely, if yields keep rising, TLT could be shorted. Presented as a tactical yield-direction trade.

Tracks long-term Treasury bonds, moves inversely to yields. $84 support gave out as yields surged. Useful for following the bond yield trajectory.

Graham warns that long-term bonds like 10 or 30-year Treasuries could lose significant value in the short term if yields continue to rise, and advises against putting money you need into long-term bonds.