XAU - Gold

Gold has broken below its 200-day moving average. Soloway sees a 75-80% probability of further downside with interim target at $4,100 and final target at $3,500-$3,600 where multiple technical factors converge including an ascending trend line and pivot high cluster.

Gold may go lower in the near term but is extremely bullish long-term as the dollar weakens through the de-dollarization process. Precious metals are a hedge against dollar decline.

Forced selling by Turkey (58 tons in 2 weeks) and Gulf sovereign wealth funds has created a temporary price discount. Long-term drivers remain intact: central banks buying, dollar pressure from deficits, de-dollarization, and major bank price targets of $5,000-$8,000. Gulf states will eventually buy gold back with oil revenues.

Short-term neutral-to-bullish as long as $4,300–$4,400 support holds on a daily closing basis. However, longer-term bearish pattern is forming. If support breaks, expect significant downside.

If gold reaches $3,500, Gareth plans to 'back up the truck' and buy physical gold, viewing it as an ultimate buying opportunity.

Gold is presented as the primary safe haven asset during inflationary crises. Historical precedent shows 2,300% gains during 1970s oil crisis. Currently surging past $5,300 with JP Morgan forecasting $6,000. Central banks are buying aggressively.

Gold already up 22% before the war. Host argues the conflict pours fuel on an existing bullish trend, with the Fed cornered by oil-driven inflation. All three scenarios are bullish for gold, with potential for new all-time highs in the $6,000-$6,300 range in prolonged conflict scenarios.

Despite war headlines that should be bullish for gold, it is forming a bearish bear flag pattern and failing to push higher. Gareth sees this as a concerning signal and expects gold to move lower in the near term, though he remains a long-term bull.

Gold is at a critical inflection point at $5,400 resistance. Soloway is not taking a directional position but watching closely for a confirmed breakout or breakdown. He respects resistance until proven broken and outlines clear if/then scenarios for both directions.

Gold is more bullish than silver, having broken through $5,100 resistance. However, still inside a wedge pattern with doji reversal candle. Neutral to slightly bearish short-term until $5,400 breaks.