XOM - Exxon Mobil Corporation

Strong price action on Iran news; on bullish radar.

Exxon expects oil prices to rise 60-70% in coming weeks due to the Iran war. Oil prices already up 8% with crude futures popping over 6% on supply threats.

If oil companies continue selling off short-term, XOM could drop under $155, which would be a breakdown below recent support. Bearish conditional setup.

Ross mentions Exxon Mobil as one of the big oil companies sitting on massive cash, on pace for $40B+ in free cash flow. Already acquired Pioneer. Discussed as context for the broader acquisition trend in big oil, not as a direct recommendation.

Exxon's hedge contracts that locked in lower oil prices are rolling off in Q2, meaning earnings will reflect current oil prices in the high $120s. Consensus estimates project Q2 earnings to roughly double year-over-year. The negative headline earnings are a temporary artifact of hedging losses, not a reflection of the underlying business strength in the current oil price environment.

Exxon has the best balance sheet in the energy industry with $30B cash, double-A credit rating, debt-to-equity under 5%. Its Permian Basin and Guyana operations produce at very low break-even costs ($35/barrel), meaning it massively profits at $126 oil. Q2 earnings expected to double YoY after hedge losses roll off.

Mentioned as an example of an oil producer with real reserves, but speaker ultimately passes because oil companies historically crash during recessions

Soloway previously shorted Exxon Mobil as part of his oil bearish thesis and expects continued downside in oil-related names.

Top stock in energy sector showing same breakout pattern as XLE; went from 120 to 180 (46% in 30 days); Ross uses it as a model example of the consolidation-to-breakout pattern with tight 5% risk

In the extremely expensive category.